Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries' climate progress

被引：98

作者：

Grassi, Giacomo ^{[1
]}

Stehfest, Elke ^{[2
]}

Rogelj, Joeri ^{[3
,4
]}

van Vuuren, Detlef ^{[2
,5
]}

Cescatti, Alessandro ^{[1
]}

House, Jo ^{[6
]}

Nabuurs, Gert-Jan ^{[7
]}

Rossi, Simone ^{[1
]}

Alkama, Ramdane ^{[1
]}

Vinas, Raul Abad ^{[1
]}

Calvin, Katherine ^{[8
]}

Ceccherini, Guido ^{[1
]}

Federici, Sandro ^{[9
]}

Fujimori, Shinichiro ^{[4
,10
,11
]}

Gusti, Mykola ^{[4
,12
]}

Hasegawa, Tomoko ^{[11
,13
]}

Havlik, Petr ^{[4
]}

Humpenoder, Florian ^{[14
]}

Korosuo, Anu ^{[1
]}

Perugini, Lucia ^{[15
]}

Tubiello, Francesco N. ^{[16
]}

Popp, Alexander ^{[14
]}

机构：

[1] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy

[2] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands

[3] Imperial Coll London, Grantham Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England

[4] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria

[5] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands

[6] Univ Bristol, Dept Geog Sci, Cabot Inst, Bristol, Avon, England

[7] Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen, Netherlands

[8] Univ Maryland, Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[9] Inst Global Environm Strategies, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan

[10] Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto, Japan

[11] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Ibaraki, Japan

[12] Lviv Polytech Natl Univ, Lvov, Ukraine

[13] Ritsumeikan Univ, Coll Sci & Engn, Shiga, Japan

[14] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany

[15] Fdn Euro Mediterranean Ctr Climate Change CMCC, Div Climate Change Impacts Agr Forests & Ecosyst, Viterbo, Italy

[16] FAO Stat Div, Via Terme Caracalla, Rome, Italy

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2021年 / 11卷 / 05期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

PARIS AGREEMENT; MANAGED LAND; CARBON; FOREST; EMISSIONS; MODEL; SCENARIOS; FRAMEWORK; INCREASE; TARGETS;

D O I：

10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries' collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, however, a mismatch of similar to 5.5 GtCO(2) yr(-1) exists between the global land-use fluxes estimated with IAMs and from countries' GHG inventories. Here we present a 'Rosetta stone' adjustment to translate IAMs' land-use mitigation pathways to estimates more comparable with GHG inventories. This does not change the original decarbonization pathways, but reallocates part of the land sink to be consistent with GHG inventories. Adjusted cumulative emissions over the period until net zero for 1.5 or 2 degrees C limits are reduced by 120-192 GtCO(2) relative to the original IAM pathways. These differences should be taken into account to ensure an accurate assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement.

引用

页码：425 / +

页数：14

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