Consumer-adoption Modeling of Distributed Solar Using an Agent-based Approach

The electricity market in the U.S. is changing rapidly from a utility-scale centralized generation-distribution model to a more distributed and customer-sited energy model. Increasingly, residential consumers are showing interest in solar-based electricity, which has resulted in increased adoption of distributed solar on the rooftops of owner-occupied residences. However, limited accessibility of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) has led to equity concerns among policymakers. Also, utility companies face a decline in revenues as more residents adopt rooftop PV. In response to these issues, utility companies must consider providing alternative renewable energy options to their customers and incorporate consumer adoption modeling in their expansion planning approach. Agent-based modeling enables energy consumers' socially-motivated adoption decisions to be realistically captured. This paper describes an agent-based model that demonstrates the value of incorporating consumer-adoption modeling in a utility company's expansion planning approach.