Time series modeling for forecasting the earthquake behavior in Indonesia

The study describes the temporal behavior of earthquake and its relation to volcanic activity in Indonesia during 1980 to 2007. Many volcanoes erupted in 1995-96 and 2004-06 and compare to those eruptive activity, maximum no. of earthquakes occurred during this period. Duncan Multiple Range test suggests that the occurrence of earthquakes during the period is statistically significant among the other years. Although most of the earthquakes are small (3 <= M <= 5) and those earthquakes may occur also for the cause of great earthquakes, since a series of great earthquakes occurred during 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between earthquake and time indicates that no. of earthquakes are increasing significantly depending on time. Finally, the seismic data follows a non stationary criteria, and the result of the time series analysis are in good agreement with fitting a appropriate time series model such as ARIMA(3,1,2).