Mathematical modeling of viral kinetics under immune control during primary HIV-1 infection

Primary human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is characterized by an initial exponential increase of viral load in peripheral blood reaching a peak, followed by a rapid decline to the viral set point. Although the target-cell-limited model can account for part of the viral kinetics observed early in infection [Phillips, 1996. Reduction of HIV concentration during acute infection: independence from a specific immune response. Science 271 (5248), 497-499], it frequently predicts highly oscillatory kinetics after peak viremia, which is not typically observed in clinical data. Furthermore, the target-cell limited model is unable to predict long-term viral kinetics, unless a delayed immune effect is assumed [Stafford et al., 2000. Modeling plasma virus concentration during primary HIV infection. J. Theor. Biol. 203 (3), 285-301]. We show here that extending the target-cell-limited model, by implementing a saturation term for HIV-infected cell loss dependent upon infected cell levels, is able to reproduce the diverse observed viral kinetic patterns without the assumption of a delayed immune response. Our results suggest that the immuneresponse may have significant effect on the control of the virus during primary infection and may support experimental observations that an anti-HIV immune response is already functional during peak viremia. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.