A Machine Learning Approach for Estimating the Trophic State of Urban Waters Based on Remote Sensing and Environmental Factors

To improve the accuracy of remotely sensed estimates of the trophic state index (TSI) of inland urban water bodies, key environmental factors (water temperature and wind field) were considered during the modelling process. Such environmental factors can be easily measured and display a strong correlation with TSI. Then, a backpropagation neural network (BP-NN) was applied to develop the TSI estimation model using remote sensing and environmental factors. The model was trained and validated using the TSI quantified by five water trophic indicators obtained for the period between 2018 and 2019, and then we selected the most appropriate combination of input variables according to the performance of the BP-NN. Our results demonstrate that the optimal performance can be obtained by combining the water temperature and single-band reflection values of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery as input variables (R-2 = 0.922, RMSE = 3.256, MAPE = 2.494%, and classification accuracy rate = 86.364%). Finally, the spatial and temporal distribution of the aquatic trophic state over four months with different trophic levels was mapped in Gongqingcheng City using the TSI estimation model. In general, the predictive maps based on our proposed model show significant seasonal changes and spatial characteristics in the water trophic state, indicating the possibility of performing cost-effective, RS-based TSI estimation studies on complex urban water bodies elsewhere.