Urban dynamics and potential vulnerability of coastal urban areas to sea level rise in the southeastern Levantine Basin

Vulnerability of coastal areas to climate change impacts such as Sea Level Rise (SLR) is largely determined by exposure to coastal hazards and prevailing urban patterns, as different patterns imply varied sensitivity and vulnerability levels. The potential vulnerability of the Nile Delta to SLR impacts is expected to be influenced by projected coastal urban dynamics, which means varied exposure in the future. The paper in hand intends to examine the influence of urban dynamics on potential physical vulnerability to SLR. For this purpose, a four-step methodology was developed and applied, including acquiring remote sensing imageries and spatial data, which was employed for modeling LULC dynamics. Thereafter, current and potential vulnerability to SLR were assessed and changes in urban vulnerability due to LULC dynamics were valued. In this respect, it was found that urban dynamics would imply more exposure levels of urban centers in the study area to SLR impacts, which will increase their potential vulnerability by 2050 compared to current vulnerability. The value of increased vulnerability due to urban dynamic was estimated to be EGP 302 billion. This highlights the need to integrate climate change in spatial planning processes to reduce potential vulnerabilities and create more resilient urban areas.