Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience

被引：89

作者：

Arani, Babak M. S. ^{[1
,2
]}

Carpenter, Stephen R. ^{[3
]}

Lahti, Leo ^{[4
]}

van Nes, Egbert H. ^{[1
]}

Scheffer, Marten ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Wageningen Univ, Aquat Ecol & Water Qual Management, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands

[2] Univ Groningen, Groningen Inst Evolutionary Life Sci, Theoret Res Evolutionary Life Sci, NL-9700 CC Groningen, Netherlands

[3] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[4] Univ Turku, Dept Comp, Turku, Finland

来源：

SCIENCE | 2021年 / 372卷 / 6547期

基金：

芬兰科学院;

关键词：

EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS; CRITICAL SLOWING-DOWN; ICE-CORE; TIPPING ELEMENTS; CLIMATE; SYSTEMS; SERIES; NOISE; PERSISTENCE; COMPLEXITY;

D O I：

10.1126/science.aay4895

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Ecological resilience is the magnitude of the largest perturbation from which a system can still recover to its original state. However, a transition into another state may often be invoked by a series of minor synergistic perturbations rather than a single big one. We show how resilience can be estimated in terms of average life expectancy, accounting for this natural regime of variability. We use time series to fit a model that captures the stochastic as well as the deterministic components. The model is then used to estimate the mean exit time from the basin of attraction. This approach offers a fresh angle to anticipating the chance of a critical transition at a time when high-resolution time series are becoming increasingly available.

引用

页码：1168 / +

页数：30

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