Tourism Flows Prediction Based on an Improved Grey GM(1,1) Model

This study analyzes the factors affecting the tourist flow. These factors include tourism resources, traffic conditions and so on. In recent years, the grey forecasting model has achieved good prediction accuracy with limited data and has been widely used in various research fields. However, the grey forecasting model still have some potential problems that need to be improved, such as applicate range and prediction accuracy. It is found that original data and background value are main factors affecting the accuracy of the proposed model's application. To solve these problems, this study develops a optimization model for the GM(1,1) model problem which includes optimization of initial and background values. In order to reduce errors caused by back-ground values, the "new information prior using" principle is followed, and a liner function is dopted in the construe of background. Numerical examples verified that the simulation and prediction accuracy of the short-term forcasts is significantly increased. As a result, the newly improved model yields a high prediction capability. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd.