Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

被引：78

作者：

Qiu, Richard T. R. ^{[1
]}

Wu, Doris Chenguang ^{[2
]}

Dropsy, Vincent ^{[3
]}

Petit, Sylvain ^{[3
,4
,5
]}

Pratt, Stephen ^{[6
]}

Ohe, Yasuo ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Macau, Fac Business Adm, Dept Integrated Resort & Tourism Management, Taipa, Macao, Peoples R China

[2] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Business Sch, Guangzhou, Peoples R China

[3] Univ French Polynesia, Ctr Res Tourism Oceania Pacific CETOP, Governance & Insular Dev, GDI,EA 1384,Res Ctr, Punaauia, French Polynesi, France

[4] Polytech Univ Hauts de France, CRISS, EA 4343, Valenciennes, France

[5] Univ Perpignan, CRESEM, EA 7397, Via Dominitia, Perpignan, France

[6] Univ South Pacific, Sch Tourism & Hospitality Management, Suva, Fiji

[7] Tokyo Univ Agr, Fac Int Agr & Food Studies, Dept Agribusiness Management, Tokyo, Japan

来源：

ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH | 2021年 / 88卷

关键词：

COVID-19; Tourism forecasting competition; Stacking models; Recovery scenarios; Judgmental-adjusted forecasting; TOURISM DEMAND;

D O I：

10.1016/j.annals.2021.103155

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%-70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页数：16

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