The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound

被引:93
作者
Gust, Christopher [1 ]
Herbst, Edward [1 ]
Lopez-Salido, David [1 ]
Smith, Matthew E. [2 ]
机构
[1] Fed Reserve Board, Div Monetary Affairs, 20th St & Constitut Ave NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA
[2] Hutchin Hill Capital, 142 West 57th St,15th Floor, New York, NY 10019 USA
关键词
OCCASIONALLY BINDING CONSTRAINTS; SOLVING DYNAMIC-MODELS; MONTE-CARLO METHODS; GREAT RECESSION; MONETARY-POLICY; NOMINAL RIGIDITIES; BUSINESS CYCLES; LIKELIHOOD; SHOCKS;
D O I
10.1257/aer.20121437
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear DSGE model in which the interest-rate lower bound is occasionally binding. We quantify the size and nature of disturbances that pushed the US economy to the lower bound in late 2008 as well as the contribution of the lower bound constraint to the resulting economic slump. We find that the interest-rate lower bound was a significant constraint on monetary policy that exacerbated the recession and inhibited the recovery, as our mean estimates imply that the zero lower bound (ZLB) accounted for about 30 percent of the sharp contraction in US GDP that occurred in 2009 and an even larger fraction of the slow recovery that followed.
引用
收藏
页码:1971 / 2006
页数:36
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