Prediction analysis of typical landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir

The deep-seated colluvial landslides that have resulted in some casualties and huge economic losses are widespread in the Three Gorges Reservoir. In order to predict the failure time, kinematic characteristics require to be understood. Based on the review of current prediction models, a practical and simpler method based on the empirical model has been suggested to assess the hazard phases of colluvial landslide where the movement pattern of seasonal creep occurred by means of alert velocity thresholds. The paper shows the application of the method in Baishuihe landslides.