Photosynthetic limits on carbon sequestration in croplands

How much C can be stored in agricultural soils worldwide to mitigate rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, and at what cost? This question, because of its critical relevance to climate policy, has been a focus of soil science for decades. The amount of additional soil organic C (SOC) that could be stored has been estimated in various ways, most of which have taken the soil as the starting point: projecting how much of the SOC previously lost can be restored, for example, or calculating the cumulative effect of multiple soil management strategies. Here, we take a different approach, recognizing that photosynthesis, the source of C input to soil, represents the most fundamental constraint to C sequestration. We follow a simple "Fermi approach " to derive a rough but robust estimate by reducing our problem to a series of approximate relations that can be parameterized using data from the literature. We distinguish two forms of soil C: 'ephemeral C', denoting recently-applied plant-derived C that is quickly decayed to CO2, and 'lingering C,' which remains in the soil long enough to serve as a lasting repository for C derived from atmospheric CO2. First, we estimate global net C inputs into lingering SOC in croplands from net primary production, biomass removal by humans and short-term decomposition. Next, we estimate net additional C storage in cropland soils globally from the estimated C inputs, accounting also for decomposition of lingering SOC already present. Our results suggest a maximum C input rate into the lingering SOC pool of 0.44 Pg C yr(-1), and a maximum net sequestration rate of 0.14 Pg C yr(-1) - significantly less than most previous estimates, even allowing for acknowledged uncertainties. More importantly, we argue for a re-orientation in emphasis from soil processes towards a wider ecosystem perspective, starting with photosynthesis.