Climate-change beliefs and resilience to climate change in Bangladesh: is leadership making any difference?

Although the significance of global leadership in combatting climate change has been widely studied, the effectiveness of local government leadership has been neglected in the literature. This study explores the relationships among climate-change belief, resilience to climate change, and local government leadership (LGL). It also examines local government's leadership in mediating and moderating the climate-change beliefs (specifically, that climate change is occurring and that it is the result of human activity) and resilience to climate change of victims of river erosion in Bangladesh and uses mediation and moderation analyses to determine the effectiveness of LGL in Bangladesh. Survey data were collected from 200 riverbank-erosion victims, and two focus-group discussions were conducted in the northern districts (Bogra and Sirajganj) of Bangladesh. Applying a mixed-methods approach, this study used adaptive capacity and vulnerability theory (ACVT) as an analytical tool along with structural equation modelling to examine the proposed model. The results suggest that climate-change belief, resilience to climate change, and LGL have significant positive relationships with each other. However, while LGL shows a partial mediation on the relationship between climate-change belief and resilience to climate change, no moderation impact was revealed that demonstrated effective LGL influence among the victims. The study extends the literature regarding the outcomes of LGL activities and initiatives on climate-change belief and resilience to climate change within a non-western context. It also provides empirical evidence from the perspective of ACVT. These results can help both policymakers and local government leaders responsible for climate-change disaster management to expedite the UN's sustainable development goal (SDG 13), especially in developing countries like Bangladesh.