The Determinants of Beginning Farm Success

Using linked data from multiple years of the U.S. Census of Agriculture, this study identifies farm and operator characteristics associated with beginning farm survival, growth, and success. Success is defined as continuing in business for 5 years without a decline in farm real estate asset value. The results indicate which types of beginning farms and farmers are likely to survive and grow-information which could be useful in targeting program resources. By identifying policy-amenable variables that correlate with both farm survival and business expansion, the results also suggest possible mechanisms for increasing the success of beginning farms.