CRIMINAL TRAJECTORIES AND RISK FACTORS IN A CANADIAN SAMPLE OF OFFENDERS

This study contributed to the criminal trajectory literature using a Canadian-based sample of offenders and examined childhood and adolescent predictors of trajectory group membership. The sample comprised 378 males who had been sentenced as youth, between 1986 and 1996, to one of two open custody facilities in Toronto, Canada. Official criminal records were obtained from late childhood and early adolescence into adulthood for an average follow-up of 12.1 years. Childhood and adolescent predictors reflecting individual, family, peer, and school domains were extracted from client files. Trajectory analysis yielded four groups, labeled moderate rate (MR); low rate (LR); high-rate, adult peaked (HRADL); and high-rate, adolescence peaked (HRADOL). Multinomial regression analyses indicated that risk factors representing the family and peer domains differentiated the MR, HRADL, and HRADOL groups from the LR group. Moreover, whereas both child and adolescent risk factors were associated with the MR, HRADL, and HRADOL groups, only adolescent risk factors were associated with the LR group.