Trends in functional disability and cognitive impairment among the older adult in China up to 2060: estimates from a dynamic multi-state population model

Background Available evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living. Hence any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Thus, this research aims to address this gap in literature by projecting the number of older adults in China with functional disability and cognitive impairment while accounting for the impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Methods We developed and validated a dynamic multi-state population model which simulates the population of China and tracks the transition of Chinese older adults (65 years and older) from 2010 to 2060, to and from six health states-(i) active older adults without cognitive impairment, (ii) active older adults with cognitive impairment, (iii) older adults with 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (iv) older adults with cognitive impairment and 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (v) older adults with 3 or more ADL limitations, and (vi) older adults with cognitive impairment and 3 or more ADL limitations. Results From 2015 to 2060, the number of older adults 65 years and older in China is projected to increase, of which the number with impairment (herein referred to as individuals with cognitive impairment and/or activity of daily living limitations) is projected to increase more than fourfold from 17 center dot 9 million (17 center dot 8-18 center dot 0) million in 2015 to 96 center dot 2 (95 center dot 3-97 center dot 1) million by 2060. Among the older adults with impairment, those with ADL limitations only is projected to increase from 3 center dot 7 million (3 center dot 6-3 center dot 7 million) in 2015 to 23 center dot 9 million (23 center dot 4-24 center dot 6 million) by 2060, with an estimated annual increase of 12 center dot 2% (12 center dot 1-12 center dot 3); while that for cognitive impairment only is estimated to increase from 11 center dot 4 million (11 center dot 3-11 center dot 5 million) in 2015 to 47 center dot 8 million (47 center dot 5-48 center dot 2 million) by 2060-this representing an annual growth of 7 center dot 07% (7 center dot 05-7 center dot 09). Conclusion Our findings suggest there will be an increase in demand for intermediate and long-term care services among the older adults with functional disability and cognitive impairment.