Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union: the FAI Project

被引：142

作者：

Di Carlo, Antonio ^{[1
]}

Bellino, Leonardo ^{[2
]}

Consoli, Domenico ^{[3
]}

Mori, Fabio ^{[4
]}

Zaninelli, Augusto ^{[5
]}

Baldereschi, Marzia ^{[1
]}

Cattarinussi, Alessandro ^{[6
]}

D'Alfonso, Maria Grazia ^{[4
]}

Gradia, Chiara ^{[3
]}

Sgherzi, Bruno ^{[7
]}

Pracucci, Giovanni ^{[6
]}

Piccardi, Benedetta ^{[1
,6
]}

Polizzi, Biancamaria ^{[8
]}

Inzitari, Domenico ^{[1
,6
]}

Aliprandi, M. L. ^{[9
]}

Bonsangue, E. ^{[9
]}

Locatelli, P. ^{[9
]}

Saurgnani, P. ^{[9
]}

Senziani, L. G. ^{[9
]}

Tarantini, D. ^{[9
]}

Rota, Rita Paola ^{[7
]}

Boninsegni, R. ^{[10
]}

Feltrin, T. ^{[10
]}

Lancia, E. ^{[10
]}

Latella, F. ^{[10
]}

Monici, G. ^{[10
]}

Portera, F. ^{[10
]}

Ceccherini, S. ^{[6
]}

Borello, G. ^{[11
]}

Contartese, A. ^{[11
]}

D'Amico, A. ^{[11
]}

D'Urzo, G. ^{[11
]}

Grillo, G. C. ^{[11
]}

Mellea, F. ^{[11
]}

Ramondino, C. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Italian Natl Res Council, Inst Neurosci, Via Madonna Piano 10, I-50019 Florence, Italy

[2] Azienda Unita Sanit Locale Toscana Ctr, Florence, Italy

[3] Azienda Sanit Prov, Vibo Valentia, Italy

[4] Careggi Univ Hosp, Cardiovasc Unit, Florence, Italy

[5] Syst Acad, Florence, Italy

[6] Univ Florence, Dept Neurofarba, Florence, Italy

[7] Agenzia Tutela Salute, Bergamo, Italy

[8] Italian Minist Hlth, Natl Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Rome, Italy

[9] Primary Care Practice, Romano Di Lombardia, Italy

[10] Primary Care Practice, Florence, Italy

[11] Moscati Primary Care Practice Assoc, Vibo Valentia, Italy

来源：

EUROPACE | 2019年 / 21卷 / 10期

关键词：

Atrial fibrillation; Epidemiology; Prevalence; Projections; European Union; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK-FACTORS; COST-EFFECTIVENESS; STROKE; ANTICOAGULATION; METAANALYSIS; PREVENTION; MORTALITY; WARFARIN; THERAPY; BURDEN;

D O I：

10.1093/europace/euz141

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Aims To estimate prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a representative sample of the Italian elderly population, projecting figures for Italy and the European Union. Methods and results A cross-sectional examination of all subjects aged 65+ years from three general practices in Northern, Central, and Southern Italy started in 2016. Participants were administered a systematic and an opportunistic screening, followed by clinical and electrocardiogram confirmation. The study sample included 6016 subjects. Excluding 235 non-eligible, among the remaining 5781 participation was 78.3%, which left 4528 participants (mean age 74.5 +/- 6.8years, 47.2% men). Prevalence of AF was 7.3% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 6.6-8.1], higher in men and with advancing age (6.6% from systematic plus 0.7% from opportunistic screening). Using prevalence figures, Italian elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at similar to 1 081 000 (95% CI 786 000-1 482 000). Considering stable prevalence, this number will increase by 75% to similar to 1 892 000 in 2060 (95% CI 1 378 000-2 579 000). European Union elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at similar to 7 617 000 (95% CI 5 530 000-10 460 000), increasing by 89% to similar to 14 401 000 in 2060 (95% CI 10 489 000-19 647 000). In 2016, subjects aged 80+ years represented 53.5% of cases in Italy and 51.2% in the European Union; in 2060, 69.6% and 65.2%, respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicate a high burden of AF in coming decades, especially among the oldest-old, who carry the higher AF-related risk of stroke and medical complications.

引用

页码：1468 / 1475

页数：8

共 39 条

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