Harvest failures, temporary export restrictions and global food security: the example of limited grain exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) are major players in the international grain markets and their exports help to improve global grain availability and hence food security. However, during the last decade the availability of RUK grain exports was repeatedly diminished by harvest failures and further reduced by the introduction of export restrictions. By simulating a reoccurrence of the 2010 RUK harvest situation this paper assesses the impact of grain harvest failures and subsequent temporary export restrictions (bans, quotas, taxes) on national and international food security, specifically quantifying the effects on agricultural market prices and quantities. For the analysis AGLINK-COSIMO, a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply-demand model, has been employed. Simulation results highlight the importance of RUK's grain production for world markets and global food security, indicating substantial price increases due to limited grain exports from RUK. Moreover, scenario results illustrate that temporary RUK export restrictions can considerably aggravate the situation on world grain markets, with particularly adverse effects for grain net importing countries. At the same time, results show that for a country like Ukraine, i.e. a country usually exporting large shares of its total grain production, the introduction of export restrictions could potentially result in decreases of domestic consumer prices to a level even below a situation with normal weather conditions. The results put international trade policy into focus and underline the necessity of greater cooperation on the part of exporting countries in order to avoid importing countries being denied necessary grain supplies.