BREXIT UNCERTAINTY AND TRADE DISINTEGRATION

被引：39

作者：

Graziano, Alejandro G.

Handley, Kyle

Limao, Nuno

机构：

[1] Univ Nottingham, Nottingham, England

[2] Univ Calif San Diego, San Diego, CA 92103 USA

[3] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[4] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

来源：

ECONOMIC JOURNAL | 2021年 / 131卷 / 635期

关键词：

POLICY UNCERTAINTY; INVESTMENT; ENTRY;

D O I：

10.1093/ej/ueaa113

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU-UK bilateral export values between 11-20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.

引用

页码：1150 / 1185

页数：36

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