Deciphering radiological stable disease to immune checkpoint inhibitors

Background: 'Stable disease (SD)' as per RECIST is a common but ambiguous outcome in patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). This study aimed to characterize SD and identify the subset of patients with SD who are benefiting from treatment. Understanding SD would facilitate drug development and improve precision in correlative research. Patients and methods: A systematic review was carried out to characterize SD in ICI trials. SD and objective response were compared to proliferation index using The Cancer Genome Atlas gene expression data. To identify a subgroup of SD with outcomes mirroring responders, we examined a discovery cohort of non- small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Serial cutpoints of two variables, % best overall response and progression-free survival (PFS), were tested to define a subgroup of patients with SD with similar survival as responders. Results were then tested in external validation cohorts. Results: Among trials of ICIs (59 studies, 14 280 patients), SD ranged from 16% to 42% in different tumor types and was associated with disease-specific proliferation index (rho = -0.75, P = 0.03), a proxy of tumor kinetics, rather than relative response to ICIs. In a discovery cohort of NSCLC [1220 patients, 313 (26%) with SD to ICIs], PFS ranged widely in SD (0.2-49 months, median 4.9 months). The subset with PFS >6 months and no tumor growth mirrored partial response (PR) minor (overall survival hazard ratio 1.0) and was proposed as the definition of SD responder. This definition was confirmed in two validation cohorts from trials of NSCLC treated with durvalumab and found to apply in tumor types treated with immunotherapy in which depth and duration of benefit were correlated. Conclusions: RECIST-defined SD to immunotherapy is common, heterogeneous, and may largely reflect tumor growth rate rather than ICI response. In patients with NSCLC and SD to ICIs, PFS >6 months and no tumor growth may be considered 'SD responders'. This definition may improve the efficiency of and insight derivable from clinical and translational research.