Association of physical activity with the incidence of atrial fibrillation in persons > 65 years old: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Aims To evaluate the association of physical activity (PA) with atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence in an elderly population. Methods We studied 5166 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort examined in 2011-2013 free of AF. Self-reported PA was evaluated with a validated questionnaire. Weekly minutes of leisure-time moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were calculated and categorized using the 2018 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans (no activity [0 min/week], low [> 0- < 150 min/week], adequate [150- < 300 min/week], high [>= 300 min/week]). Incident AF through 2019 was ascertained from hospital discharges and death certificates. Cox models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for AF by levels of physical activity adjusting for potential confounders. Results The mean (SD) age for the sample was 75 (5) years (59% female, 22% Black). During a mean (SD) follow-up time of 6.3 (2.0) years, 703 AF events were identified. The association of MVPA with AF incidence showed a U-shaped relationship. Compared to those not engaging in MVPA, individuals with low MVPA had a 23% lower hazard of AF (HR = 0.77; 95% CI 0.61, 0.96), while those with adequate MVPA had a 14% lower hazard (HR 0.86; 95% CI 0.69, 1.06). High levels of MVPA were not associated with AF risk (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.78, 1.20). Conclusion This study suggests that being involved in low to moderate levels of MVPA is associated with lower AF risk, with no evidence of increased risk of AF in those with higher levels of MVPA.