Occurence Frequency of Storm Wind Waves in the Baltic, Black, and Caspian Seas under Changing Climate Conditions

被引：11

作者：

Kislov, A. V. ^{[1
]}

Surkova, G. V. ^{[1
]}

Arkhipkin, V. S. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, GSP 1, Moscow 119991, Russia

来源：

RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY | 2016年 / 41卷 / 02期

基金：

俄罗斯基础研究基金会;

关键词：

Climate; forecast; severe events; storm wind waves;

D O I：

10.3103/S1068373916020060

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate.

引用

页码：121 / 129

页数：9

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