The effect of wildfire and land-cover changes on the economic value of ecosystem services in Mount Carmel Biosphere Reserve, Israel

The contribution of ecosystem services (ES) to human wellbeing relies on the ecosystem's ability to supply ES. Managing the pressures affecting ES in protected areas can enhance ES value over time. Our objective was to estimate the change in ES values in a heterogenous Biosphere Reserve (BR) affected by land-cover changes, in Mount Carmel, Israel. The methodology included ES valuation and scenarios analysis that integrated both - the biophysical attributes representing ES stock and the market prices representing ES benefits. The results show that food provisioning services and water quantity regulation make the highest contribution to ES value (17 million and 16 million USD, respectively, per 26,600 hectares). Additionally, land restoration scenarios enhanced ES values by 30-50%, despite wildfires and land cover changes that affected the ecosystems. In severe drought conditions, alternative water resources were able to conserve only the value of the provisioning services, whereas the estimate of the regulating services decreased, mainly due to natural land degradation. In order to enhance ecosystems and ES, croplands and grasslands should be managed to maximize their ES potential. The integration of similar research methods in future studies can support land-management decisions, increase ES stock and the contribution of ES to human wellbeing.