Multi-agent simulation of adoption of alternative fuels

被引：36

作者：

van Vliet, Oscar ^{[1
,2
]}

de Vries, Bert ^{[2
]}

Faaij, Andre ^{[2
]}

Turkenburg, Wim ^{[2
]}

Jager, Wander ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[2] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands

[3] Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, NL-9700 AB Groningen, Netherlands

来源：

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT | 2010年 / 15卷 / 06期

关键词：

Agent-based modelling; Energy transition; Innovation diffusion; Automotive fuels; Biofuels; VEHICLE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.trd.2010.03.006

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

We have formalized and parameterized a model for the production of six transport fuels and six fuels blends from six feedstocks through 13 different production chains, and their adoption of by 11 distinct subpopulations of motorists. The motorists are represented by agents that use heuristics to choose a fuel on the basis of three attributes and a social feedback loop. Adoption of specific fuels is mostly driven by price differences, but other factors play a role if prices are similar. The results are not always intuitive and do not always show up immediately. We find that sustained combinations of interventions are required to bring about a transition away from petrol or diesel. Adoption of alternative fuels was most often confined to niche markets with a share of 5% or lower. Only in a single case was a complete fuel transition observed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：326 / 342

页数：17

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