Farmer's willingness to adopt private and collective biogas facilities: An agent-based modeling approach

Manure-based biogas may make an important contribution both to the energy transition and to the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Despite these benefits, in Switzerland the use of manure as an energy source is still very limited. The engagement of farmers in biogas production is low and the barriers to their participation are not well known. This study investigates the behavior of Swiss farmers towards anaerobic digestion and the potential impact of changing incentives. Based on a comprehensive survey, including a choice experiment, their willingness to participate in manure-based biogas production is investigated at different levels. An Agent-Based Model (ABM) is designed and used to simulate the development of biogas facilities under different framework conditions. The agent's' properties are derived from the farmers' survey. Simulation results show that revenue for produced energy is the main driver. An increase of 0.10 CHF/kWh energy revenues (compared to 0.45 CHF/kWh today) would enable the establishment of 10 additional biogas facilities (10% more than today) enabling the manure of an additional 4285 livestock units to be mobilized for biogas, (<1% of the total available manure). The influence of the availability of additional material (co-substrate) for digestion is visible but with even less impact, while a one-time remuneration grant has barely any influence. In this context, the mobilization of the full resources potential involves substantial changes at the technological, organizational, institutional, political, economic, and socio-cultural levels.