Role of Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utilization to Enable a Net-Zero-CO2-Emissions Aviation Sector

A techno-economic analysis of viable scenarios for the aviation industry to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions is presented. These scenarios are based (i) on carbon capture and storage (CCS), where conventional fossil jet fuel is produced, and the corresponding emissions are offset by capturing CO2, either via direct air capture (DAC-CCS route) or via point-source capture (PSC-CCS route), and permanently storing it underground, and (ii) on carbon capture and utilization (CCU), where synthetic jet fuel is produced by using CO2 as feedstock, which is either captured from air (DAC-CCU route) or from a point-source emitter (PSC-CCU route). All routes are feasible and have their advantages and shortcomings. To ensure net-zero CO2 emissions, the feedstock of the point-source emitter, both for CCS- and CCU-based routes, must be of biogenic nature. A quantitative assessment of these scenarios and of a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where aviation emissions are subjected to a carbon tax, is performed based on jet fuel cost and carbon price projections until 2050. Cost reductions due to wide deployment and economy of scale of current low-maturity technologies are accounted for. Parametric and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the effects of uncertainty associated with the most relevant techno-economic quantities on the observed trends. Findings show that CCS-based scenarios consistently lead to lower jet fuel costs than CCU-based scenarios across the considered time scenarios and sensitivity analyses. This is mainly due to the fact that CCU-based routes result in an energy consumption more than 20 times higher than CCS-based routes, which also implies higher CO2 emissions when considering the carbon intensity of current electricity grids. Overall, the PSC-CCS route represents the most cost-effective solution for decarbonizing the aviation industry, and it is cost-competitive with BAU already today.