Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California
被引:14
作者:
Grantham, Theodore E. W.
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机构:
Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 130 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA 94702 USAUniv Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 130 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA 94702 USA
Grantham, Theodore E. W.
[1
]
Carlisle, Daren M.
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机构:
US Geol Survey, Natl Water Qual Program, 4821 Quail Crest Pl, Lawrence, KS 66049 USAUniv Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 130 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA 94702 USA
Carlisle, Daren M.
[2
]
McCabe, Gregory J.
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h-index: 0
机构:
US Geol Survey, MS 412, Denver, CO 80225 USAUniv Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 130 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA 94702 USA
McCabe, Gregory J.
[3
]
Howard, Jeanette K.
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机构:
Nature Conservancy, 201 Mission St,4th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105 USAUniv Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 130 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA 94702 USA
Howard, Jeanette K.
[4
]
机构:
[1] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 130 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA 94702 USA
[2] US Geol Survey, Natl Water Qual Program, 4821 Quail Crest Pl, Lawrence, KS 66049 USA
[3] US Geol Survey, MS 412, Denver, CO 80225 USA
[4] Nature Conservancy, 201 Mission St,4th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA
Climate change is rapidly altering the global water cycle, exposing vulnerabilities in both social and environmental systems. However, uncertainty in future climate predictions makes it difficult to design and evaluate strategies for building climate resilience. In regions such as California, characterized by stressed water-supply systems, high natural climate variability, and substantial uncertainty in future precipitation projections, alternative approaches to assessing climate risks may be useful. Here, we develop a hydrologic sensitivity approach to estimate regional streamflow responses to climate change in California. We use statistical models to predict monthly streamflow from physical catchment features and evaluate how flow changes with incremental changes in precipitation and temperature. The results indicate unique regional and monthly flow responses to climate change, with early summer flows (May-July) in interior mountain region having the greatest sensitivity to temperature and winter flows (December-March) in the xeric region having the greatest sensitivity to precipitation. When evaluated over the range of global climate model projections for mid-century (2040-2069), models generally suggest shifts in streamflow regimes towards higher wet season flows and lower dry season flows relative to historical conditions. The sensitivity analysis provides insight into catchment- and regional-scale hydrologic responses in California and complements other approaches for understanding the consequences of climatic change for water and risk management.
机构:
Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USAUniv Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Vano, Julie A.
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Das, Tapash
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机构:
Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Div Climate Atmospher Sci & Phys Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USAUniv Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Das, Tapash
;
Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
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机构:
Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USAUniv Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
机构:
Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USAUniv Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Vano, Julie A.
;
Das, Tapash
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Div Climate Atmospher Sci & Phys Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USAUniv Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Das, Tapash
;
Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USAUniv Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA