Colony characteristics influence nest survival of Caribbean Roseate Terns

Determining how site characteristics influence reproductive success can help guide conservation planning for declining wildlife populations. For colonially breeding seabirds, nest survival and predation risk can be influenced by both colony and nest site characteristics such as colony size, nest density, and nest location. We evaluated the reproductive success of a declining population of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) in the United States and British Virgin Islands to identify primary causes of nest failure and investigate the influence of colony and nest site covariates on nest survival. In addition, we measured the influence of colony characteristics on chick provisioning to determine if resource competition in larger colonies affected foraging rates. Monitoring was conducted in 2017-2018 via motion-triggered cameras, which enable 24-hr monitoring with minimal nest disturbance. Nest survival was defined by both hatch success and early chick success, defined as a chick surviving from hatching through the fourth post-hatch day. We monitored 118 nests in 6 colonies over the 2 breeding seasons. We found that predation was the primary cause of nest failure. Both hatch and nest success increased with colony size, and neither nest survival nor predation probability was influenced by individual nest site characteristics. Provisioning rates were comparable among colony sites and did not vary with colony size. Our results suggest that directing management efforts toward enhancing colony size, rather than focusing on nest site characteristics, can be beneficial for tropical seabird conservation.