An evaluation of multicriteria decision-making methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are increasingly aware of the need to explicitly consider uncertainty and a range of criteria when evaluating alternative policies for preventing global warming. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods provide a useful set of tools for understanding tradeoffs and gaining insight into policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the multitude of different techniques, each with distinct advantages and disadvantages. Methods differ widely in terms of their ease of use and appropriateness to the issue under consideration. Most importantly, different methods can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held to expose climate change experts, IA researchers, and policy makers to a range of MCDM methods and to evaluate and compare their potential usefulness to IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision and evaluated each method. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analysis.