Glacier anomalies and relevant disaster risks on the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings

The Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings contain the largest number of glaciers outside the polar regions. In the past 100 years, the glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas have been retreating slowly. Since the 1990s, however, the state of glaciers has undergone abnormal changes. Compared with the data derived from the First Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI) (1960s-1980s), the glacier volume in China decreased by approximately 20% and the glacier area was reduced by approximately 17.7%, based on the data derived from the Second CGI. In particular, the glacier mass loss of the small glaciers was characterized by an area less than 1 km(2) and was more intensive than that of lager glaciers. Abnormal changes in the glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding areas are mainly reflected by the spatial pattern. Through the systematic analysis of the data on glacier area, terminal position, and mass balance changes, it was found that the glacier changes in the region experienced obvious spatial heterogeneity from 1990 to 2010. The "Karakoram glacier anomaly" in the eastern Pamir, Karakoram, and western Kunlun regions has exhibited slight mass stability or even glacier advance. However, the glaciers on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau experienced the most intensive and accelerated shrinkage. On the evaluated timescale, the state of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings has undergone abnormal changes regarding the loss rate of glacier volume. In the past 50 years, most of the glaciers have had a negative mass balance. Moreover, the mass loss process has intensified, especially since the 1990s. It is estimated that the loss rate of glacier volume from the Tibetan Plateau was as large as -15.6 +/- 10.1 Gt/a between 2003 and 2009. In addition to the abnormal changes in spatial patterns and temporal changes, the glaciers exhibited an abnormal change within the glacial system. The most significant variability within the glacier system was the abnormal change in the structure of glacier ice. Another abnormal change within the glacier system was that the glaciers showed a sustained slowdown concomitant with ice thinning. Abnormal warming at high altitudes is an important driver of abnormal changes in glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings. Moreover, these contrasting glacier behaviors on the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings are related to atmospheric circulation processes, especially interactions between the westerlies and the Indian Summer Monsoon. In addition, changes in glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings are closely related to the enhancement of human activities. The South Asian region on the southern slope of the Himalayas acts as a main source of severe anthropogenic aerosol emissions, especially that of black carbon. The black carbon transported from South Asia to the glaciers reduces the glacier's albedo and thus accelerates glacier melting. As global warming intensifies, the abnormal glacier status will likely lead to more hazards, such as ice collapse and glacial lake outburst floods. To reduce the potential glacial risks on the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings, it is necessary to further strengthen the abilities of glacier monitoring and disaster prevention.