Nomogram prediction of vulnerable periodontal condition before orthodontic treatment in the anterior teeth of Chinese patients with skeletal Class III malocclusion

Objective To establish and verify models predictive of thin periodontal phenotype and alveolar fenestration/dehiscence in the anterior teeth of patients with skeletal Class III malocclusion. Material and methods Retrospective data of 669 anterior teeth (305 in maxillae and 364 in mandibles) from 80 patients with skeletal Class III malocclusion before augmented corticotomy were collected. Distribution of thin periodontal phenotype and alveolar fenestration and dehiscence were evaluated and their associations with potential influencing factors were explored using univariate and multivariate analyses. The predictive models were visualized as nomograms, the accuracy of which was tested by receiver operating curve analyses. Results Thin phenotype was associated with Mazza bleeding index, sex, tooth type, probing depth and width of keratinized gingiva (WKG). Labial dehiscence was associated with age, jaw, labial bone thickness, mandibular plane angle, sagittal root position (SRP), sex, tooth type, and WKG. Labial fenestration was associated with sex, tooth type, SRP, and periodontal phenotype. The areas under the curves of nomogram prediction models for periodontal phenotype, alveolar dehiscence, and alveolar fenestration were 0.84, 0.81, and 0.73, respectively. Conclusions Female sex, lateral incisor, and limited WKG may be risk factors for thin periodontal phenotype. Age, canine, male sex, mandible, thin labial bone thickness, and root positioned against the labial plate may be risk factors for labial dehiscence; and female sex, thick phenotype, root positioned against the labial plate, lateral incisor, and canine may be risk factors for labial fenestration. The predictive performance of the models was acceptable.