Hindcast and predictability of sporadic Kuroshio-water intrusion (kyucho in the Bungo Channel) into the shelf and coastal waters

Prerequisite(s) for ocean circulation models capable of hindcasting "kyucho" occurrence (a sudden coastal temperature rise induced by Kuroshio frontal waves) in the Bungo Channel, Japan, is investigated using long-term observed temperature and sea level time series, archived hydrographic data, and reanalysis data provided by the Japanese Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment (JCOPE) group. Anticyclonic mesoscale eddies impinging on the Kuroshio front south of the Bungo Channel enhance the frontal sharpness, frontal wave growth, and activity of kyucho phenomena. A kyucho hindcast is carried out to examine the reliability of a numerical model including realistic anticyclonic eddies propagating south of Japan. The Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) for which boundary conditions are given by daily JCOPE2 reanalysis data is adopted in the present study. This numerical model does a reasonable job of hindcasting kyucho occurrence in 2003. It is therefore considered that forecasts of kyucho occurrence up to 2 or 3 months ahead are possible by using the FVCOM in conjunction with JCOPE2 forecast data.