The global, regional, and national burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

被引：470

作者：

Pourshams, Akram ^{[1
]}

Sepanlou, Sadaf G. ^{[1
]}

Ikuta, Kevin S. ^{[15
,16
]}

Bisignano, Catherine ^{[15
]}

Safiri, Saeid ^{[19
,20
]}

Roshandel, Gholamreza ^{[1
,24
]}

Sharif, Mehdi ^{[25
,26
]}

Khatibian, Morteza ^{[1
]}

Fitzmaurice, Christina ^{[15
,17
]}

Nixon, Molly R. ^{[15
]}

Abbasi, Nooshin ^{[27
]}

Afarideh, Mohsen ^{[6
]}

Ahmadian, Elham ^{[21
]}

Akinyemiju, Tomi ^{[29
,30
]}

Alahdab, Fares ^{[31
]}

Alam, Tahiya ^{[15
]}

Alipour, Vahid ^{[33
,34
]}

Allen, Christine A. ^{[15
]}

Anber, Nahla Hamed ^{[36
]}

Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza ^{[37
]}

Arabloo, Jalal ^{[34
]}

Badawi, Alaa ^{[38
,39
]}

Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba ^{[41
]}

Belayneh, Yaschilal Muche ^{[42
]}

Biadgo, Belete ^{[43
]}

Bijani, Ali ^{[44
]}

Biondi, Antonio ^{[46
]}

Bjorge, Tone ^{[48
,49
]}

Borzi, Antonio M. ^{[45
]}

Bosetti, Cristina ^{[51
]}

Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich ^{[52
]}

Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich ^{[53
]}

Carreras, Giulia ^{[54
]}

Carvalho, Felix ^{[55
,56
]}

Choi, Jee-Young J. ^{[58
]}

Dinh-Toi Chu ^{[59
]}

Anh Kim Dang ^{[60
]}

Daryani, Ahmad ^{[61
]}

Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil ^{[62
,65
]}

Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam ^{[66
]}

Desai, Rupak ^{[68
]}

Dey, Subhojit ^{[69
]}

Hoa Thi Do ^{[71
]}

Huyen Phuc Do ^{[70
]}

Eftekhari, Aziz ^{[21
,73
]}

Esteghamati, Alireza ^{[6
]}

Farzadfar, Farshad ^{[11
]}

Fernandes, Eduarda ^{[57
]}

Filip, Irina ^{[74
,76
]}

Fischer, Florian ^{[77
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Digest Dis Res Inst, Tehran, Iran

[2] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Canc Biol Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[3] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Canc Res Inst, Tehran, Iran

[4] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Dept Cardiol, Tehran, Iran

[5] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Dept Microbiol, Tehran, Iran

[6] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Endocrinol & Metab Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[7] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Hematol Malignancies Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[8] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Hematol Oncol & Stem Cell Transplantat Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[9] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Iran Natl Inst Hlth Res, Tehran, Iran

[10] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Liver & Pancreatobiliary Dis Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[11] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[12] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Res Ctr Immunodeficiencies, Tehran, Iran

[13] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Sch Med, Tehran, Iran

[14] Shiraz Univ Med Sci, Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr, Shiraz, Iran

[15] Univ Washington, Sch Med, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA USA

[16] Univ Washington, Sch Med, Div Allergy & Infect Dis, Seattle, WA USA

[17] Univ Washington, Sch Med, Div Hematol, Seattle, WA USA

[18] Univ Washington, Sch Med, Dept Hlth Metr Sci, Seattle, WA USA

[19] Tabriz Univ Med Sci, Aging Res Inst, Tabriz, Iran

[20] Tabriz Univ Med Sci, Dept Community Med, Tabriz, Iran

[21] Tabriz Univ Med Sci, Dept Pharmacol & Tcadcol, Tabriz, Iran

[22] Tabriz Univ Med Sci, Drug Appl Res Ctr, Tabriz, Iran

[23] Tabriz Univ Med Sci, Sch Nutr & Food Sci, Tabriz, Iran

[24] Golestan Univ Med Sci, Golestan Res Ctr Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Gorgan, Golestan, Iran

[25] Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Basic Sci, Sari, Iran

[26] Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Lab Sci, Sari, Iran

[27] McGill Univ, Montreal Neurol Inst, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[28] Baku State Univ, Inst Radiat Problems Azerbaijan, Dept Physiol, Baku, Azerbaijan

[29] Duke Univ, Dept Populat Hlth Sci, Durham, NC USA

[30] Duke Univ, Duke Global Hlth Inst, Durham, NC USA

[31] Mayo Clin, Fdn Med Educ & Res, Evidence Based Practice Ctr, Rochester, MN USA

[32] Iran Univ Med Sci, Colorectal Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[33] Iran Univ Med Sci, Hlth Econ Dept, Tehran, Iran

[34] Iran Univ Med Sci, Hlth Management & Econ Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[35] Iran Univ Med Sci, Ophthalmol Dept, Tehran, Iran

[36] Mansoura Univ, Fac Med, Mansoura, Egypt

[37] Hlth Promot Res Ctr, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Zahedan, Iran

[38] Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, Toronto, ON, Canada

[39] Univ Toronto, Dept Nutr Sci, Toronto, ON, Canada

[40] Univ Toronto, Joint Ctr Bioeth, Toronto, ON, Canada

[41] Sharif Univ Technol, Dept Chem, Tehran, Iran

[42] Wollo Univ, Dept Pharm, Dessie, Ethiopia

[43] Univ Gondar, Dept Clin Chem, Gondar, Ethiopia

[44] Babol Univ Med Sci, Social Determinants Hlth Res Ctr, Babol Sar, Iran

[45] Univ Catania, Dept Clin & Mol Biomed MEDBIO, Catania, Italy

[46] Univ Catania, Dept Gen Surg & Med Surg Specialties, Catania, Italy

[47] Univ Bergen, Dept Clin Med, Bergen, Norway

[48] Univ Bergen, Dept Global Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Bergen, Norway

[49] Canc Registry Norway, Oslo, Norway

[50] Mario Negri Inst Pharmacol Res, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Milan, Italy

来源：

LANCET GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY | 2019年 / 4卷 / 12期

关键词：

BODY-MASS INDEX; POOLED-ANALYSIS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; STATISTICS; DEATHS; UK;

D O I：

10.1016/S2468-1253(19)30347-4

中图分类号：

R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Background Worldwide, both the incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer are increasing. Evaluation of pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policy making and better resource allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and more effective treatments. Methods Vital registration, vital registration sample, and cancer registry data were used to generate mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer: smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. All of the estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were reported for all estimates. Findings In 2017, there were 448 000 (95% UI 439 000-456 000) incident cases of pancreatic cancer globally, of which 232 000 (210 000-221 000; 51.9%) were in males. The age-standardised incidence rate was 5.0 (4.9-5.1) per 100 000 person-years in 1990 and increased to 5.7 (5.6-5.8) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. There was a 2.3 times increase in number of deaths for both sexes from 196 000 (193 000-200 000) in 1990 to 441 000 (433 000-449 000) in 2017. There was a 2.1 times increase in DALYs due to pancreatic cancer, increasing from 4.4 million (4.3-4.5) in 1990 to 9.1 million (8.9-9.3) in 2017. The age-standardised death rate of pancreatic cancer was highest in the high-income super-region across all years from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in Greenland (17.4 [15.8-19.0] per 100 000 person-years) and Uruguay (12.1 [10.9-13.5] per 100 000 person-years). These countries also had the highest age-standardised death rates in 1990. Bangladesh (1.9 [1.5-2.3] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 2017, and Sao Tome and Principe (1.3 [1.1-1.5] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 1990. The numbers of incident cases and deaths peaked at the ages of 65-69 years for males and at 75-79 years for females. Age-standardised pancreatic cancer deaths worldwide were primarily attributable to smoking (21.1% [18.8-23.7]), high fasting plasma glucose (8.9% [2.1-19.4]), and high body-mass index (6.2% [2.5-11.4]) in 2017. Interpretation Globally, the number of deaths, incident cases, and DALYs caused by pancreatic cancer has more than doubled from 1990 to 2017. The increase in incidence of pancreatic cancer is likely to continue as the population ages. Prevention strategies should focus on modifiable risk factors. Development of screening programmes for early detection and more effective treatment strategies for pancreatic cancer are needed. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

引用

页码：934 / 947

页数：14

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