Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

被引：267

作者：

Wahl, T. ^{[1
,2
]}

Haigh, I. D. ^{[3
]}

Nicholls, R. J. ^{[4
]}

Arns, A. ^{[5
]}

Dangendorf, S. ^{[5
]}

Hinkel, J. ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

Slangen, A. B. A. ^{[9
,10
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Cent Florida, Dept Civil Environm & Construct Engn, 12800 Pegasus Dr,Suite 211, Orlando, FL 32816 USA

[2] Univ Cent Florida, Sustainable Coastal Syst Cluster, 12800 Pegasus Dr,Suite 211, Orlando, FL 32816 USA

[3] Univ Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Natl Oceanog Ctr, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England

[4] Univ Southampton, Engn & Environm, 22 Univ Rd, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England

[5] Univ Siegen, Res Inst Water & Environm, Paul Bonatz St 9-11, D-57076 Siegen, Germany

[6] Global Climate Forum, Neue Promenade 6, D-10178 Berlin, Germany

[7] Humboldt Univ, Div Resource Econ, Albrecht Daniel Thaer Inst, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany

[8] Humboldt Univ, Berlin Workshop Inst Anal Social Syst, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany

[9] Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Estuarine & Delta Syst, POB 140, NL-4400 AC Yerseke, Netherlands

[10] Univ Utrecht, POB 140, NL-4400 AC Yerseke, Netherlands

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2017年 / 8卷

关键词：

RISE;

D O I：

10.1038/ncomms16075

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

引用

页数：12

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