Risk Analysis of Distributed Generation Scenarios

Assertiveness in generation forecast is an important issue for utilities when they are planning their operation. Hydropower Generation forecast has a strong stochastic component and thinking about small hydropower plants (SHP) is even more complex. In recent years, many SHP was installed in Brazil due to a Government incentive and the distributed generation penetration has an impact in technical losses' estimation. The objective of this study is to propose a methodology to generate synthetic scenarios of distributed generation for hydro sources. A case study was carried on with historical generation data from SHP located in Minas Gerais. The periodic regression model was considered the best model for forecast hydropower generation. Three distributed generation scenarios are obtained using Conditional Value at Risk analysis after combining multiple scenarios from inflow forecasting generated with the periodic regression model.