Survival models based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

被引:62
|
作者
Aalen, OO
Gjessing, HK
机构
[1] Univ Oslo, Inst Basic Med Sci, Dept Stat, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
[2] Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, N-0403 Oslo, Norway
关键词
Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process; first-passage time; hazard rate; mortality plateau; Ornstein-Uhlenbeck; process; quasi-stationary distribution; survival analysis;
D O I
10.1007/s10985-004-4775-9
中图分类号
O1 [数学];
学科分类号
0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要
When modelling survival data it may be of interest to imagine an underlying process leading up to the event in question. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is a natural model to consider in a biological context because it stabilizes around some equilibrium point. This corresponds to the homeostasis often observed in biology, and also to some extent in the social sciences. First, we study the first-passage time distribution of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, focussing especially on what is termed quasi-stationarity and the various shapes of the hazard rate. Next, we consider a model where the individual hazard rate is a squared function of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We extend known results on this model. The results on quasi-stationarity are relevant for recent discussions about mortality plateaus. In addition, we point out a connection to models for short-term interest rates in financial modeling.
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页码:407 / 423
页数:17
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