Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

被引:84
作者
King, Andrew D. [1 ,2 ]
Lane, Todd P. [1 ,2 ]
Henley, Benjamin J. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Brown, Josephine R. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Parkville, Vic, Australia
[2] Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Parkville, Vic, Australia
[3] Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
1.5; DEGREES-C; CLIMATE-CHANGE; 1.5-DEGREES-C; TEMPERATURE; 2-DEGREES-C; CMIP5; PRECIPITATION; RESPONSES; EXTREMES; OCEAN;
D O I
10.1038/s41558-019-0658-7
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
It has been assumed that spatial patterns of warming are the same under transient and equilibrium scenarios. Analysis of a multi-model ensemble shows that this is not the case, with greater land warming for a transient state, increasing risks that need to be considered in adaptation planning. There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between specific levels of global warming, especially the Paris Agreement limits of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. However, different model experiments(1-3) have been used in these analyses under varying rates of increase in global-average temperature. Here, we use climate model simulations to show that, for a given global temperature, most land is significantly warmer in a rapidly warming (transient) case than in a quasi-equilibrium climate. This results in more than 90% of the world's population experiencing a warmer local climate under transient global warming than equilibrium global warming. Relative to differences between the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming limits, the differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium states are substantial. For many land regions, the probability of very warm seasons is at least two times greater in a transient climate than in a quasi-equilibrium equivalent. In developing regions, there are sizable differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium climates that underline the importance of explicitly framing projections. Our study highlights the need to better understand differences between future climates under rapid warming and quasi-equilibrium conditions for the development of climate change adaptation policies. Yet, current multi-model experiments(1,4) are not designed for this purpose.
引用
收藏
页码:42 / +
页数:8
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