Progress towards sustainable intensification in China challenged by land-use change

被引：240

作者：

Zuo, Lijun ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Zengxiang ^{[1
]}

Carlson, Kimberly M. ^{[2
]}

MacDonald, Graham K. ^{[3
]}

Brauman, Kate A. ^{[4
]}

Liu, Yingchun ^{[5
]}

Zhang, Wen ^{[6
]}

Zhang, Huayong ^{[7
]}

Wu, Wenbin ^{[8
]}

Zhao, Xiaoli ^{[1
]}

Wang, Xiao ^{[1
]}

Liu, Bin ^{[1
]}

Yi, Ling ^{[1
]}

Wen, Qingke ^{[1
]}

Liu, Fang ^{[1
]}

Xu, Jinyong ^{[1
]}

Hu, Shunguang ^{[1
]}

Sun, Feifei ^{[1
]}

Gerber, James S. ^{[4
]}

West, Paul C. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Hawaii, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Management, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[3] McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[4] Univ Minnesota, Inst Environm, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

[5] State Forestry Adm, Acad Forest Inventory & Planning, Beijing, Peoples R China

[6] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LAPC, Beijing, Peoples R China

[7] North China Elect Power Univ, Res Ctr Engn Ecol & Nonlinear Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[8] Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Minist Agr, Key Lab Agri Informat, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY | 2018年 / 1卷 / 06期

基金：

美国食品与农业研究所; 加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

FOOD SECURITY; METHANE EMISSIONS; N2O EMISSIONS; NITROGEN; PRODUCTIVITY; RESOURCES; CROPLAND;

D O I：

10.1038/s41893-018-0076-2

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

China is experiencing rapid land-use change and shifts in farm management. However, the interactive effects of these drivers on cropping system sustainability are unclear. Here, we evaluate spatio-temporal trade-offs among crop production and five key environmental indicators, including land use, water consumption, excess nitrogen and phosphorous use, and greenhouse gas emissions in China. From 1987 to 2010, as crop kilocalorie production increased (+66%), so did the total environmental impact of all indicators (+1.3-161%) except greenhouse gas emissions (-18%). Concurrently, environmental intensity-impact per kilocalorie produced-decreased for all indicators (-51--13%) except excess phosphorus (+57%). Despite substantial loss and displacement of cropland to urban expansion, counterfactual scenario analysis indicates that farm management explained >90% of changes in crop production and environmental impact. However, cropland is expanding in regions of relatively high land and irrigation intensity. Although efficiency gains partly compensated for increased environmental pressures, continued geographic shifts in cropland could challenge progress towards agricultural sustainability in China.

引用

页码：304 / 313

页数：10

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