Intestinal ischemia in patients with incarcerated groin hernia: proposal and validation of a score

Purpose Intestinal ischemia (II) is the most critical factor to determine in patients with incarcerated groin hernia (IGH) because II could be reversible, and it is considered as a "time sensitive condition." Although predictive factors of II were identified in several previous studies, preoperative diagnosis of II cannot be reliably made or excluded by any known parameter. The aims of this study were: to devise and to validate a clinic-biologic score, with a strong discriminatory power, for predicting the risk of II in patients with IGH. Methods We conducted a retrospective bicentric study including 335 patients with IGH. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictive factors of II. We assigned points for the score according to the regression coefficient. The area under the curve (AUC) was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The scoring system was then prospectively validated on a second independent population of 45 patients admitted for IGH in the same departments (internal validation). Results Four independent predictive factors of II were identified: heart rate, duration of symptoms before admission, prothrombin, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). A predictive score of II was established based on these independent predictive factors. Sensitivity was 94.50%; specificity was 92.70%. The AUC of this score was 0.97. The AUC was 0.96 when the score was applied on the second population of patients. Conclusions We performed a score to predict the risk of intestinal II with a good accuracy (the AUC of our score was 0.97). This score is reliable and reproducible, so it can help a surgeon to prioritize patients with II for surgery (especially at this time of COVID-19 pandemic), because ischemia could be reversible, avoiding thus intestinal necrosis.