Probabilistic assessment of debris impact damage on orbital structures

Stochastic models of damage caused by man-made debris impacts on orbital structures are developed. Randomness in characteristics of debris objects and the target body are considered. The debris impacts are modeled as Poisson events in time and space. In a first model, the effect of damage accumulation (coinciding impact craters) is included and the statistical moments of the damage random field are derived. Numerical investigations show, however, that for typical space flights and debris environments the accumulation effect is negligible. Based on this finding, a simpler model is developed that neglects the accumulation of damage, but is able to provide statistics on the size of damage. The probability distribution of the size of the largest crater inflicted on the surface of a spacecraft during one or more flight segments is derived based on this model. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.