Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease

被引:338
作者
Keeling, MJ
Woolhouse, MEJ
May, RM
Davies, G
Grenfell, BT
机构
[1] Univ Warwick, Dept Biol Sci, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
[2] Univ Warwick, Math Inst, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
[3] Univ Edinburgh, Coll Med & Vet Med, Ctr Infect Dis, Roslin EH25 9RG, Midlothian, Scotland
[4] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England
[5] Zinnia, Woking GU21 4JJ, Surrey, England
[6] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England
基金
英国惠康基金;
关键词
D O I
10.1038/nature01343
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against a range of infectious diseases of humans and animals. However, its potential to control major epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in livestock is contentious. Using an individual farm-based model, we consider either national prophylactic vaccination campaigns in advance of an outbreak, or combinations of reactive vaccination and culling strategies during an epidemic. Consistent with standard epidemiological theory, mass prophylactic vaccination could reduce greatly the potential for a major epidemic, while the targeting of high-risk farms increases efficiency. Given sufficient resources and preparation, a combination of reactive vaccination and culling might control ongoing epidemics. We also explore a reactive strategy, 'predictive' vaccination, which targets key spatial transmission loci and can reduce markedly the long tail that characterizes many FMD epidemics. These analyses have broader implications for the control of human and livestock infectious diseases in heterogeneous spatial landscapes.
引用
收藏
页码:136 / 142
页数:7
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