Modeling the Prediction of the Session Rating of Perceived Exertion in Soccer: Unraveling the Puzzle of Predictive Indicators

Purpose: To predict the session rating of perceived exertion (sRPE) in soccer and determine its main predictive indicators. Methods: A total of 70 external-load indicators (ELIs), internal-load indicators, individual characteristics, and supplementary variables were used to build a predictive model. Results: The analysis using gradient-boosting machines showed a mean absolute error of 0.67 (0.09) arbitrary units (AU) and a root-mean-square error of 0.93 (0.16) AU. ELIs were found to be the strongest predictors of the sRPE, accounting for 61.5% of the total normalized importance (NI), with total distance as the strongest predictor. The included internal-load indicators and individual characteristics accounted only for 1.0% and 4.5%, respectively, of the total NI. Predictive accuracy improved when including supplementary variables such as group-based sRPE predictions (10.5% of NI), individual deviation variables (5.8% of NI), and individual player markers (17.0% of NI). Conclusions: The results showed that the sRPE can be predicted quite accurately using only a relatively limited number of training observations. ELIs are the strongest predictors of the sRPE. However, it is useful to include a broad range of variables other than ELIs, because the accumulated importance of these variables accounts for a reasonable component of the total NI. Applications resulting from predictive modeling of the sRPE can help coaching staff plan, monitor, and evaluate both the external and internal training load.