Predicting Model of Vulnerabilities Based on Markov Chain

This paper first inspect on the current situation in the domain of qualification, modeling and prediction of vulnerabilities, analyzing the difficulty and disadvantages in this domain, thus rasie the idea of studying the prediction of vulnerabilities in the perspective of third party evaluating organizations. Besides, the traditional predicting model of software vulnerabilities didn't take the influence of the harming degree to software into consideration. However, under many conditions such as studying the trustworthiness of software, we not only need to consider about the number of software vulnerabilities, but also have to think about the influence of the harming degree to software made by vulnerabilities. Thus we introduce the Markov chain to model the discovery of vulnerabilities with the idea of prediction considering harming degree, and give the specific calculating method. At last, we took an example in real world to testify the model.