Modeling of Energy and Environment for Sustainable Development

Previous efforts on modeling of energy and environment are critically examined and the structure of energy and environment system model is described. The modeling of energy and environment for sustainable development using Bangladesh as a case of illustrative example is presented. The computer model essentially consists of a system dynamics model in combination with Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP). The output of the system dynamics model is fed into the LEAP model. The model projects energy supply and demand and its contribution to global warming. Simulated results show that the energy demands in all sectors of the economy are increasing with time. The demand for electrical energy is also increasing and there is shortage of electric power. The performance of the electric power generation and utilization can be improved through reduction of system loss and introduction of end-use efficiency improvement devices. However, generation capacity needs to be increased for sustainable development with gradual transition to renewable energy resources. Power cannot reach everywhere and mini-grids for supply of energy, information, and communication for rural development and economic growth for isolated areas such as islands are advocated. Bangladesh is responsible for a small fraction of the total anthropogenic contribution of CO2 but could be seriously affected by climatic change. LEAP in combination with a system dynamics model is more effective than LEAP alone for energy and environmental planning for sustainable development.