This work combines two auxiliary techniques, namely the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing and the hybrid formulation, to boost the forecasting skills of a storm surge ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) forecasting system. Bayesian filtering with OSA-smoothing enhances the robustness of the ensemble background statistics by exploiting the data twice: first to constrain the sampling of the forecast ensemble with the future observation, and then to update the resulting ensemble. This is expected to improve the behavior of EnKF-like schemes during the strongly nonlinear surges periods, but requires integrating the ensemble with the forecast model twice, which could be computationally demanding. The hybrid flow-dependent/static formulation of the EnKF background error covariance is then considered to enable the implementation of the filter with a small flow-dependent ensemble size, and thus less model runs. These two methods are combined within an ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). The resulting hybrid ETKF with OSA smoothing is tested, based on twin experiments, using a realistic setting of the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model configured for storm surge forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico and assimilating pseudo-observations of sea surface levels from a network of buoys. The results of our numerical experiments suggest that the proposed filtering system significantly enhances ADCIRC forecasting skills compared to the standard ETKF without increasing the computational cost.
机构:
Delft Univ Technol, NL-2628 CD Delft, Netherlands
King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Thuwal, Saudi ArabiaDelft Univ Technol, NL-2628 CD Delft, Netherlands
机构:
King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Earth Sci & Engn, Thuwal 23955, Saudi ArabiaKing Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Earth Sci & Engn, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia
Gharamti, Mohamad E.
Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa
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King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Appl Math & Computat Sci, Thuwal 23955, Saudi ArabiaKing Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Earth Sci & Engn, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia
Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa
Hoteit, Ibrahim
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King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Earth Sci & Engn, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia
King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Appl Math & Computat Sci, Thuwal 23955, Saudi ArabiaKing Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Earth Sci & Engn, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia
机构:
Hohai Univ, Coll Energy & Elect Engn, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, Peoples R ChinaHohai Univ, Coll Energy & Elect Engn, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Huang, Jing
Boland, John
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Univ South Australia, Ctr Ind & Appl Math, Sch Informat Technol & Math Sci, Mawson Lakes Blvd, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, AustraliaHohai Univ, Coll Energy & Elect Engn, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, Peoples R China