A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation

We develop an approximate solution method for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely long-lived investor with Epstein-Zin utility who faces a set of asset returns described by a vector autoregression in returns and state variables. Empirical estimates in long-run annual and post-war quarterly U.S. data suggest that the predictability of stock returns greatly increases the optimal demand for stocks. The role of nominal bonds in long-term portfolios depends on the importance of real interest rate risk relative to other sources of risk. Long-term intlation-indexed bonds greatly increase the utility of conservative investors. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.