Prediction of histologic grade and type of small (< 4 cm) papillary renal cell carcinomas using texture and neural network analysis: a feasibility study

Objective To predict the histologic grade and type of small papillary renal cell carcinomas (pRCCs) using texture analysis and machine learning algorithms. Methods This was a retrospective HIPAA-compliant study. 24 noncontrast (NC), 22 corticomedullary (CM) phase, and 24 nephrographic (NG) phase CTs of small (< 4 cm) surgically resected pRCCs were identified. Surgical pathology classified the tumors as low- or high-Fuhrman histologic grade and type 1 or 2. The axial image with the largest cross-sectional tumor area was exported and segmented. Six histogram and 31 texture (20 gray-level co-occurrences and 11 gray-level run-lengths) features were calculated for each tumor in each phase. Feature values in low- versus high-grade and type 1 versus 2 pRCCs were compared. Area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated for each feature to assess prediction of histologic grade and type of pRCCs in each phase. Histogram, texture, and combined histogram and texture feature sets were used to train and test three classification algorithms (support vector machine (SVM), random forest, and histogram-based gradient boosting decision tree (HGBDT)) with stratified shuffle splits and threefold cross-validation; AUCs were calculated for each algorithm in each phase to assess prediction of histologic grade and type of pRCCs. Results Individual histogram and texture features did not have statistically significant differences between low- and high-grade or type 1 and type 2 pRCCs across all phases. Individual features had low predictive power for tumor grade or type in all phases (AUC < 0.70). HGBDT was highly accurate at predicting pRCC histologic grade and type using histogram, texture or combined histogram and texture feature data from the CM phase (AUCs = 0.97-1.0). All algorithms had highest AUCs using CM phase feature data sets; AUCs decreased using feature sets from NC or NG phases. Conclusions The histologic grade and type of small pRCCs can be predicted with classification algorithms using CM histogram and texture features, which outperform NC and NG phase image data. The accurate prediction of pRCC histologic grade and type may be able to further guide management of patients with small (< 4 cm) pRCCs being considered for active surveillance.