The primary assessment of the economic efficiency of strategic directions of gas industry development in Russia

Economic, geopolitical and energy instability, both on the global and regional markets, as well as the high dependence of the Russian economy on the oil and gas sector (60% of export revenues and 45% of the state budget revenues in 2018) actualizes the renunciation of the export-raw material vector of the development. The author identifies key strategic directions for the transformation of the gas industry in Russia, and raises the question of the primary assessment of the economic efficiency of their realization. So, the author proposes approach to the primary assessment of strategic priorities through econometric modeling of vector autoregression (VAR) and distributed lag autoregression (ARDL); he also identifies the advantages and disadvantages of these models when conducting a primary assessment of economic efficiency. After that, the author presents and explains the results of the primary assessment of the economic efficiency of these strategic priorities on the example of the impact on economic growth, both in the short and long term. Also, the obtained results are compared with the studies of other authors, which confirm the adequacy and possibility of applying the author's approach to the primary assessment of the economic efficiency of the strategic priorities of the gas industry in Russia.