Future burn probability in south-central British Columbia

被引：55

作者：

Wang, Xianli ^{[1
,2
]}

Parisien, Marc-Andre ^{[3
]}

Taylor, Stephen W. ^{[4
]}

Perrakis, Daniel D. B. ^{[5
]}

Little, John ^{[3
]}

Flannigan, Mike D. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, 751 Gen Serv Bldg, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada

[2] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Great Lakes Forestry Ctr, 1219 Queen St East, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada

[3] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, No Forestry Ctr, 5320 122nd St, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada

[4] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Pacific Forest Ctr, 506 W Burnside Rd, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5, Canada

[5] British Columbia Minist Forests Lands & Nat Resou, Wildfire Management Branch, 2957 Jutland Rd,2nd Floor,Bldg A, Victoria, BC V8W 9C1, Canada

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE | 2016年 / 25卷 / 02期

关键词：

climate change; fire ignitions; fire weather; fuels; CLIMATE-CHANGE; FIRE REGIMES; CHANGING CLIMATE; WILDLAND FIRES; FOREST; WILDFIRE; NORTH; PREDICTION; MANAGEMENT; VEGETATION;

D O I：

10.1071/WF15091

中图分类号：

S7 [林业];

学科分类号：

0829 ; 0907 ;

摘要：

Little is known about how changing climates will affect the processes controlling fire ignition and spread. This study examines the effect of climate change on the factors that drive fire activity in a highly heterogeneous region of south-central British Columbia. Future fire activity was evaluated using Burn-P3, a simulation model used to estimate spatial burn probability (BP) by simulating a very large number of fires. We modified the following factors in the future projections of BP: (1) fuels (vegetation), (2) ignitions (number of fires), and (3) weather (daily conditions and duration of fires). Our results showed that the future climate will increase the number of fires and fire-conducive weather, leading to widespread BP increases. However, the conversion of current forest types to vegetation that is not as flammable may partially counteract the effect of increasing fire weather severity. The top-down factors (ignitions and weather) yield future BPs that are spatially coherent with the current patterns, whereas the changes due to future vegetation are highly divergent from today's BP. This study provides a framework for assessing the effect of specific agents of change on fire ignition and spread in landscapes with complex fire-climate-vegetation interactions.

引用

页码：200 / 212

页数：13

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