Creating the 'ripe moment' in the East Timor conflict

Analyzing the East Timer conflict by way of applying William Zartman's notion of 'ripeness' and John Burton's 'basic human needs' not only proves indispensable for pointing out the personalities, forces and dynamics that might contribute to a negotiated outcome of the East Timer conflict, but also to how these notions might be applied to intractable conflicts more generally. This paper argues that a means of breaking out of the present impasse in negotiations concerning the East Timer conflict is to create what Zartman calls the 'ripe moment'. It is argued that the missing ingredient for the 'ripe moment' in the case of East Timer is what Zartman calls a 'formula for a way out'. Central in the development of such a formula is that parties build upon 'basic needs' which they mutually recognize - 'Type 1 needs' - and defer to a later stage of negotiations those 'basic needs' where disagreement is found - 'Type needs'. After criticizing Burton's notion of basic needs and the distinction intended to deal with the criticism of Burton's theory, it is argued that the likely initiators of the 'formula for the way out' in the case of the East Timer conflict are what are referred to as pro-autonomy East Timorese. The significance of developing such a formula lies in its potential to become a focus of negotiations between the Indonesian government and representatives of pro-autonomy East Timorese - negotiations that are supported by the international community and expatriate East Timorese political organizations.